Correlation and Regression for SSC CGL — Formulas, Shortcuts, and PYQ Solutions

intermediate 22 min read

Concept

Correlation and regression are two sides of the same coin — correlation tells you how strongly two variables move together, while regression tells you by how much one variable changes when the other changes by one unit.

Here is the core distinction you must lock in before reading further:

Correlation is symmetric. The correlation between X and Y is identical to the correlation between Y and X. It is a pure number between -1 and +1 with no units.

Regression is directional. The regression of Y on X (predicting Y using X) gives a different equation from the regression of X on Y (predicting X using Y). These are two distinct lines — they only coincide when |r| = 1 (perfect correlation).

Think of it this way: imagine you are tracking daily temperature (X) and ice-cream sales (Y). Correlation answers "do they move together?" Regression answers "if temperature rises by 1 degree, by how many units do sales rise?" — and that answer depends on which variable you treat as the predictor.

Why does this matter for SSC CGL? Because questions routinely exploit the confusion between the two regression coefficients b_yx and b_xy. Candidates who do not know which coefficient belongs to which line consistently mark the wrong answer. The exam does not reward vague understanding — it rewards the ability to slot numbers into the right formula in under 90 seconds.

One useful analogy: correlation is like the R-squared of a relationship expressed as a simpler number, while regression is the actual slope of the line you would draw on a scatter diagram. The scatter diagram itself is the visual entry point — a tight cluster along a diagonal means high correlation; a wide cloud means low correlation.


Deep Dive

Karl Pearson's Coefficient of Correlation (r)

The most tested formula:

r=Cov(X,Y)σXσYr = \frac{\text{Cov}(X, Y)}{\sigma_X \cdot \sigma_Y}

Where:

The raw-score (computational) version — the one you will actually use in exam numericals:

r=nΣxyΣxΣy[nΣx2(Σx)2][nΣy2(Σy)2]r = \frac{n\Sigma xy - \Sigma x \cdot \Sigma y}{\sqrt{[n\Sigma x^2 - (\Sigma x)^2][n\Sigma y^2 - (\Sigma y)^2]}}

Key properties you must memorize:

Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient

Used when data is in ranks or the distribution is not normal. Formula:

rs=16Σdi2n(n21)r_s = 1 - \frac{6\Sigma d_i^2}{n(n^2 - 1)}

Where d_i is the difference between the ranks of the i-th observation on X and Y, and n is the number of pairs.

When there are tied ranks, the average rank is assigned and a correction factor is added to \Sigma d^2. SSC CGL rarely tests the tied-ranks correction, but know that it exists.

The Two Regression Lines

Regression of Y on X (used to predict Y given X):

Yyˉ=byx(Xxˉ)Y - \bar{y} = b_{yx}(X - \bar{x})

Where the regression coefficient:

byx=Σ(xxˉ)(yyˉ)Σ(xxˉ)2=rσYσXb_{yx} = \frac{\Sigma(x - \bar{x})(y - \bar{y})}{\Sigma(x - \bar{x})^2} = r \cdot \frac{\sigma_Y}{\sigma_X}

Regression of X on Y (used to predict X given Y):

Xxˉ=bxy(Yyˉ)X - \bar{x} = b_{xy}(Y - \bar{y})

Where the regression coefficient:

bxy=Σ(xxˉ)(yyˉ)Σ(yyˉ)2=rσXσYb_{xy} = \frac{\Sigma(x - \bar{x})(y - \bar{y})}{\Sigma(y - \bar{y})^2} = r \cdot \frac{\sigma_X}{\sigma_Y}

The Golden Relationship: r and the Two b's

This is the single most important identity in this chapter for SSC CGL:

r2=byxbxyr^2 = b_{yx} \cdot b_{xy}

r=±byxbxy\therefore r = \pm\sqrt{b_{yx} \cdot b_{xy}}

The sign of r equals the common sign of both regression coefficients (if both are positive, r is positive; if both are negative, r is negative). You will never see one regression coefficient positive and the other negative — that would be a contradiction.

Also note: r, b_yx, and b_xy always carry the same sign.

The Point of Intersection of the Two Regression Lines

Both regression lines always pass through (\bar{x}, \bar{y}). This is a theorem with a direct exam application: if you are given the means and one regression equation, you can find an unknown coefficient by substituting the means.

Least Squares Principle

The regression line is derived by minimizing the sum of squared residuals — that is, \Sigma(y_i - \hat{y}_i)^2 is minimized. This gives the "best-fit" line. You do not need to derive this for SSC CGL, but you should know that the formulas for b_{yx} and the intercept a come from setting up and solving the normal equations:

Σy=na+bΣx\Sigma y = na + b\Sigma x Σxy=aΣx+bΣx2\Sigma xy = a\Sigma x + b\Sigma x^2

From these: b = \frac{n\Sigma xy - \Sigma x \cdot \Sigma y}{n\Sigma x^2 - (\Sigma x)^2} and a = \bar{y} - b\bar{x}.

Bounds on Regression Coefficients

This bound is a quick sanity check when options look suspicious.


Memory Tricks & Shortcuts

patternProduct Root Rule for r

When both regression lines are given in the form y = a + bx and x = c + dy, extract b_yx = b (coefficient of x in the y-on-x line) and b_xy = d (coefficient of y in the x-on-y line), then compute r = √(b × d).

Worked example: y = 2x + 3 and x = 0.4y + 1. Here b_yx = 2, b_xy = 0.4. So r = √(2 × 0.4) = √0.8 ≈ 0.894.

Standard method (computing covariance, both SDs): 4-5 steps. This shortcut: 2 steps — multiply, take square root. Time saved: roughly 60 seconds versus 20 seconds.

substitutionMean-Point Substitution for Missing Coefficient

Both regression lines pass through (\bar{x}, \bar{y}). If you are given the means and a regression equation with one unknown coefficient, simply plug in the means and solve.

Worked example: \bar{x} = 4, \bar{y} = 6, equation Y = 2 + bX. Substitute: 6 = 2 + b(4) → b = 1. Done in 10 seconds flat versus setting up the full normal equations (45+ seconds).

patternCovariance-to-r in Three Steps

Given Var(X), Var(Y), and Cov(X,Y): (1) take square roots of variances to get \sigma_X and \sigma_Y, (2) multiply them, (3) divide Cov by that product.

Worked example: Var(X) = 9, Var(Y) = 16, Cov = 6. Step 1: \sigma_X = 3, \sigma_Y = 4. Step 2: 3 × 4 = 12. Step 3: 6 / 12 = 0.5. Three arithmetic operations, no formula hunting needed. Saves 2 formula-lookup steps compared to writing out the full Pearson formula each time.

eliminationSanity Check: Product of b's Must Be ≤ 1

In any valid data set, b_yx × b_xy ≤ 1. Scan the answer options for r: if an option implies r > 1 or r < -1, eliminate immediately without calculation.

Also: if one regression coefficient exceeds 1 (say b_yx = 2), the other must be less than 0.5 (since 2 × b_xy ≤ 1 → b_xy ≤ 0.5). Use this to cross-check answer choices and eliminate in 5 seconds versus computing from scratch (30-40 seconds).

patternIdentifying Which Line is Which

Rule: in the line "Y = a + bX", the dependent variable is Y — so this is the regression of Y on X, meaning b_yx = b. In the line "X = c + dY", the dependent variable is X — so this is the regression of X on Y, meaning b_xy = d.

The error candidates make: treating the coefficient in the second line as b_yx. Keeping the dependent variable = left-hand side as your anchor, you will never confuse the two coefficients. This single pattern stops roughly 30% of wrong answers on this topic.


Fast-Solving Framework

When a correlation or regression question appears in the exam hall, run this decision tree:

Step 1 — What type of question is it?

Step 2 — Sign check. Both b_yx and b_xy positive → r is positive. Both negative → r is negative.

Step 3 — Bounds check. Is |r| ≤ 1? Is b_yx × b_xy ≤ 1? If your answer violates these, recheck your coefficient identification.

Step 4 — Eliminate impossible options. Any option with |r| > 1 is wrong. Any option where both regression coefficients are given with opposite signs is wrong.

If you spend more than 90 seconds on a straightforward numericals-type question here, you have misidentified which formula applies — go back to Step 1.


Solved PYQs

Why this question: Tests the foundational property that both regression lines pass through the mean point — this property appears in multiple forms across SSC CGL papers.

Previous Year Questionपिछले वर्ष का प्रश्न
The two regression lines pass through the point (x̄, ȳ). If x̄ = 4 and ȳ = 6, and the regression line of Y on X is given by Y = 2 + bX, what is the value of b?
दोनों समाश्रयण रेखाएं बिंदु (x̄, ȳ) से गुजरती हैं। यदि x̄ = 4 और ȳ = 6 है, और X पर Y की समाश्रयण रेखा Y = 2 + bX है, तो b का मान क्या होगा?
  1. 0.5
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 1
  1. 0.5
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 1
Solutionसमाधान
Both regression lines pass through the point (x̄, ȳ). Substituting x̄ = 4 and ȳ = 6 into Y = 2 + bX: 6 = 2 + b(4) → 4 = 4b → b = 1. So the regression coefficient b = 1.
दोनों समाश्रयण रेखाएं बिंदु (x̄, ȳ) से गुजरती हैं। x̄ = 4 और ȳ = 6 को Y = 2 + bX में रखने पर: 6 = 2 + b(4) → 4 = 4b → b = 1। अतः समाश्रयण गुणांक b = 1 है।

Solving path: Both regression lines pass through (\bar{x}, \bar{y}) = (4, 6). The line is Y = 2 + bX. Substitute directly: 6 = 2 + b(4)4 = 4bb = 1. No formula needed — pure substitution.


Why this question: The range of r is a definitional question that appears almost every year. Get this right in 5 seconds.

Previous Year Questionपिछले वर्ष का प्रश्न
The value of the correlation coefficient (r) always lies between:
सहसंबंध गुणांक (r) का मान हमेशा किसके बीच रहता है?
  1. -2 and +2 (inclusive)
  2. -1 and +1 (inclusive)
  3. -∞ and +∞
  4. 0 and +1 (inclusive)
  1. -2 और +2 के बीच (सम्मिलित)
  2. -1 और +1 के बीच (सम्मिलित)
  3. -∞ और +∞ के बीच
  4. 0 और +1 के बीच (सम्मिलित)
Solutionसमाधान
The correlation coefficient r always lies between -1 and +1, i.e., -1 ≤ r ≤ +1. A value of +1 indicates perfect positive correlation, -1 indicates perfect negative correlation, and 0 indicates no linear correlation.
सहसंबंध गुणांक r का मान हमेशा -1 और +1 के बीच होता है, अर्थात् -1 ≤ r ≤ +1। r = +1 पूर्ण धनात्मक सहसंबंध, r = -1 पूर्ण ऋणात्मक सहसंबंध और r = 0 कोई रैखिक सहसंबंध नहीं दर्शाता है।

Solving path: By definition of Pearson's coefficient, r is bounded: -1 ≤ r ≤ +1. Option B. Eliminate A (range -2 to +2 is wrong), C (unbounded is wrong), D (only non-negative is wrong — negative correlation exists).


Why this question: Classic two-regression-line problem. Tests whether you correctly identify b_yx versus b_xy and apply the product-root rule.

Previous Year Questionपिछले वर्ष का प्रश्न
If the two regression lines are y = 2x + 3 and x = 0.4y + 1, what is the value of the correlation coefficient r?
यदि दो regression lines y = 2x + 3 और x = 0.4y + 1 हैं, तो correlation coefficient r का मान क्या होगा?
  1. 0.894
  2. 0.75
  3. 0.8
  4. 0.632
  1. 0.894
  2. 0.75
  3. 0.8
  4. 0.632
Solutionसमाधान
The regression coefficient of y on x is byx = 2 and the regression coefficient of x on y is bxy = 0.4. The correlation coefficient r = √(byx × bxy) = √(2 × 0.4) = √0.8 ≈ 0.894. Since both regression coefficients are positive, r is positive.
y पर x का regression coefficient byx = 2 है और x पर y का regression coefficient bxy = 0.4 है। Correlation coefficient r = √(byx × bxy) = √(2 × 0.4) = √0.8 ≈ 0.894। चूँकि दोनों regression coefficients धनात्मक हैं, इसलिए r भी धनात्मक है।

Solving path: Line 1 (y on x): y = 2x + 3, so b_yx = 2. Line 2 (x on y): x = 0.4y + 1, so b_xy = 0.4. Then r = √(2 × 0.4) = √0.8. Compute: √0.8 = √(4/5) = 2/√5 ≈ 2/2.236 ≈ 0.894. Both coefficients positive → r is positive. Answer: 0.894.


Why this question: Direct application of the covariance formula for r. Tests whether you remember to take square roots of variances before dividing.

Previous Year Questionपिछले वर्ष का प्रश्न
Given that the variance of X is 9, variance of Y is 16, and the covariance of X and Y is 6, what is the value of Karl Pearson's coefficient of correlation?
यदि X का variance 9, Y का variance 16, और X तथा Y का covariance 6 है, तो Karl Pearson का correlation coefficient क्या होगा?
  1. 0.25
  2. 0.667
  3. 0.375
  4. 0.5
  1. 0.25
  2. 0.667
  3. 0.375
  4. 0.5
Solutionसमाधान
r = Cov(X,Y) / (σX × σY). Here σX = √9 = 3, σY = √16 = 4, and Cov(X,Y) = 6. So r = 6 / (3 × 4) = 6 / 12 = 0.5.
r = Cov(X,Y) / (σX × σY)। यहाँ σX = √9 = 3, σY = √16 = 4, और Cov(X,Y) = 6। इसलिए r = 6 / (3 × 4) = 6 / 12 = 0.5।

Solving path: σ_X = √9 = 3, σ_Y = √16 = 4. Then r = Cov(X,Y) / (σ_X × σ_Y) = 6 / (3 × 4) = 6/12 = 0.5. Answer: 0.5.


Why this question: Tests the least-squares formula for b_yx using deviation scores. Most direct regression coefficient calculation type.

Previous Year Questionपिछले वर्ष का प्रश्न
In a regression equation y = a + bx, the slope b is also known as the regression coefficient of y on x. If Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 60 and Σ(x − x̄)² = 30, what is the value of b?
Regression equation y = a + bx में, slope b को y on x का regression coefficient कहते हैं। यदि Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 60 और Σ(x − x̄)² = 30 है, तो b का मान क्या होगा?
  1. 1800
  2. 0.5
  3. 2
  4. 30
  1. 1800
  2. 0.5
  3. 2
  4. 30
Solutionसमाधान
The regression coefficient of y on x is given by b = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) / Σ(x − x̄)². Substituting the given values: b = 60 / 30 = 2.
y पर x का regression coefficient b = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) / Σ(x − x̄)² सूत्र से निकाला जाता है। दिए गए मान रखने पर: b = 60 / 30 = 2।

Solving path: b_{yx} = \Sigma(x - \bar{x})(y - \bar{y}) / \Sigma(x - \bar{x})^2 = 60 / 30 = 2. Answer: 2. This is a one-step division — if you spend more than 20 seconds here, you are overthinking it.


Why this question: Tests product-root rule with non-trivial numbers — √0.48 requires quick approximation.

Previous Year Questionपिछले वर्ष का प्रश्न
If the two regression coefficients are byx = 0.8 and bxy = 0.6, what is the value of the correlation coefficient r?
यदि दो रिग्रेशन गुणांक byx = 0.8 और bxy = 0.6 हों, तो सहसंबंध गुणांक r का मान क्या होगा?
  1. 0.70
  2. 0.69 (approximately)
  3. 1.40
  4. 0.48
  1. 0.70
  2. 0.69 (लगभग)
  3. 1.40
  4. 0.48
Solutionसमाधान
The correlation coefficient r is given by r = √(byx × bxy) = √(0.8 × 0.6) = √0.48 ≈ 0.6928, which is approximately 0.69. Since both regression coefficients are positive, r is also positive.
सहसंबंध गुणांक r का सूत्र है: r = √(byx × bxy) = √(0.8 × 0.6) = √0.48 ≈ 0.6928, जो लगभग 0.69 है। चूँकि दोनों रिग्रेशन गुणांक धनात्मक हैं, इसलिए r भी धनात्मक होगा।

Solving path: r = √(b_yx × b_xy) = √(0.8 × 0.6) = √0.48. Now √0.49 = 0.7, so √0.48 is just below 0.7 — approximately 0.6928, i.e., 0.69. Both coefficients positive → r is positive. Answer: 0.69 (approximately).


Why this question: Another two-regression-line problem — tests the same product-root rule but with smaller coefficients, giving a less obvious square root.

Previous Year Questionपिछले वर्ष का प्रश्न
If the two regression lines are y = 0.4x + 3 and x = 0.3y + 2, what is the coefficient of correlation between x and y?
यदि दो regression lines y = 0.4x + 3 और x = 0.3y + 2 हैं, तो x और y के बीच correlation coefficient क्या है?
  1. 0.346
  2. 0.12
  3. 0.458
  4. 0.6
  1. 0.346
  2. 0.12
  3. 0.458
  4. 0.6
Solutionसमाधान
The regression coefficient of y on x is b_yx = 0.4, and the regression coefficient of x on y is b_xy = 0.3. The coefficient of correlation r = √(b_yx × b_xy) = √(0.4 × 0.3) = √0.12 ≈ 0.346. Since both regression coefficients are positive, r is also positive.
y पर x का regression coefficient b_yx = 0.4 है, और x पर y का regression coefficient b_xy = 0.3 है। correlation coefficient r = √(b_yx × b_xy) = √(0.4 × 0.3) = √0.12 ≈ 0.346। चूँकि दोनों regression coefficients positive हैं, इसलिए r भी positive है।

Solving path: Line 1 (y on x): y = 0.4x + 3, so b_yx = 0.4. Line 2 (x on y): x = 0.3y + 2, so b_xy = 0.3. Then r = √(0.4 × 0.3) = √0.12. Compute: √0.12 = √(12/100) = (2√3)/10 ≈ (2 × 1.732)/10 ≈ 3.464/10 ≈ 0.346. Answer: 0.346.


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